Monthly Macro Update, August 2023
Last month brought resilience in the U.S., deflation in China, stagnation in Europe, and improved growth prospects elsewhere in emerging markets. The gap between upside economic surprises in the U.S. and disappointing data from Europe is at extreme levels that have rarely been seen in…
Monthly Macro Update, July 2023
Little in the macro and investment landscapes is playing out quite as anticipated so far in 2023. Calls for a recession in the U.S. and a pivot by the Federal Reserve turned out to be premature. The U.S. dollar stayed broadly stable, while prospects for…
Monthly Macro Update, June 2023
The growing importance of differentiation and selectivity was front and center in TRG’s monthly Global Strategy Meeting (“GSM”) of the themes shaping the outlook for financial markets. With major macro tail risks diminishing, attention is turning back to idiosyncratic factors as drivers of performance at…
Monthly Macro Update, May 2023
Nearly a year and five percentage points later, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle may have finally run its course. Whether the Fed has the room to cut rates in coming months is less certain, depending on the resilience in employment and inflation pressures, as…
The Rohatyn Group Announces Investment in Kensta Group, East Africa’s Leading Paper Merchandiser and Supplier of Print and Digital Solutions
New York, NY, and Johannesburg, South Africa, April 27th 2023 – The Rohatyn Group (“TRG”) a specialized global asset management firm focused on investment solutions in emerging markets and real assets, today announced an investment in Kensta Group (“Kensta”), an East African group operating in…
Monthly Macro Update, April 2023
Turmoil in the U.S. banking sector in early March upended the prevalent market narrative centered on economic resilience and the need for additional Federal Reserve (“Fed”) tightening. The policy response to bank tensions was decisive and succeeded in preventing systemic contagion. However, expectations for terminal…
Global Markets Macro Monthly, March 2023
Markets globally gave back part of their early-year gains as the macro story turned more challenging. Upside surprises to both inflation and growth in the U.S. and Europe led to a sharply higher repricing in U.S. rates as well as renewed uncertainty around the Federal…
Global Markets Macro Monthly. February 2023
We are two months into the year and market sentiment has improved as investors dissect inflation numbers, economic data, and the path of the Federal Reserve. Levels in both the Cboe Volatility Index and ICE BofAML MOVE index – respectively used to gauge volatility in…
The U.S. Dollar Has Turned. Now What?
Since September 26, the U.S. dollar has lost 13% against the Euro, around 10% against the Japanese yen and nearly 11% against a basket of developed market currencies, as per the Dollar Index. During the same period, the EMFX index – a popular currency measure…
DEBUNKING CHINA’S HOUSING MYTHS
China’s property sector is undergoing a severe contraction. Given property’s large size and interconnectedness, the sector’s woes are raising a series of concerns about local government finances, banks’ balance sheets and even about the risk of a deep recession. We find these concerns overblown and…