Monthly Macro Update, August 2023
Last month brought resilience in the U.S., deflation in China, stagnation in Europe, and improved growth prospects elsewhere in emerging markets. The gap between upside economic surprises in the U.S. and disappointing data from Europe is at extreme levels that have rarely been seen in…
Monthly Macro Update, July 2023
Little in the macro and investment landscapes is playing out quite as anticipated so far in 2023. Calls for a recession in the U.S. and a pivot by the Federal Reserve turned out to be premature. The U.S. dollar stayed broadly stable, while prospects for…
Monthly Macro Update, June 2023
The growing importance of differentiation and selectivity was front and center in TRG’s monthly Global Strategy Meeting (“GSM”) of the themes shaping the outlook for financial markets. With major macro tail risks diminishing, attention is turning back to idiosyncratic factors as drivers of performance at…
Monthly Macro Update, May 2023
Nearly a year and five percentage points later, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle may have finally run its course. Whether the Fed has the room to cut rates in coming months is less certain, depending on the resilience in employment and inflation pressures, as…
Monthly Macro Update, April 2023
Turmoil in the U.S. banking sector in early March upended the prevalent market narrative centered on economic resilience and the need for additional Federal Reserve (“Fed”) tightening. The policy response to bank tensions was decisive and succeeded in preventing systemic contagion. However, expectations for terminal…
Global Markets Macro Monthly, March 2023
Markets globally gave back part of their early-year gains as the macro story turned more challenging. Upside surprises to both inflation and growth in the U.S. and Europe led to a sharply higher repricing in U.S. rates as well as renewed uncertainty around the Federal…